Recent spat by Israel on the Turkish ambassador brought in its wake a diplomatic skirmish between the two countries resulting in a rare Israeli apology. Will the relationship between the two erstwhile partners in the volatile region of Middle-East improve? The question is in the minds of many political analysts. I examined the state of play between Turkey and Israel by watching the recent Solar Eclipse. In this bog post, I write about the Solar Eclipse in terms of Astronomy and Cosmics and pen my interpretation in point form.
Brief
Turkey and Israel were good buddies throughout the establishment of Israel in 1947. In fact, Turkey was one of the few countries that gave diplomatic recognition to the nascent country. Both Turkey and Israel moulded a political and economic relationship that stood intact during Israel’s war with Arab countries. Later in the nineties, the relationship took the shape of strategic partnership with the military dimension added to political and economic spheres. One reason for this is the similar outlook both countries had in terms of deeply hostile relationship with their respective neighbours. Turkey had to grapple with Armenia, Syria, Iran, the rebellious Kurds and ever nagging Cyprus. Israel continued to be beset with problems with the Arab neighbours and an intractable Palestinian crisis.
The turning point came in December 2008 when Israel sent its troops to Gaza on mission codenamed, “Operation Cast Lead” which resulted in the death of Palestinians in thousands. The world felt aghast, so did Turkey whose Premier Recep Erdogan was furious as he was in the midst of peacemaking between Israel and Syria. From this moment things went bad for the partnership. Recep Erdogan upped his antipathy in statements and a walk out from Davos conference in January 2009 after delivering a stinging criticism on Shimon Peres, Israeli President was a litmus test. The recent diplomatic ridicule by the Deputy Foreign Minister over the Turkish ambassador Ogug Celikkol made things worse. A Turkish ultimatum brought Israel to remorse followed by an apology but not to any sense of pragmatism though. Last Sunday, Ehud Barak visited Turkey on a previously scheduled trip but with an added emphasis on mending ties. He was partially successful. He had long and fruitful meetings with Turkish Defence Minister Vecdi Gonul and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. However, the plums he looked for in meeting Prime Minister Recep Erdogan or President Abdullah Gul or Defence Chief of Staff Ilker Basbug evaded him.
Solar Eclipse
Astronomy
The solar Eclipse that took place on Friday January 15, 2010 was the longest annular and partial one lasting about 11 minutes and 8 seconds. It is significant because it is the longest for the millennium as the next longest one is not due until 3043 A.D. This particular eclipse is known as Saros 141 Series. The series began in May 1,613 A.D. It repeats every 18 years and the one that occurred on Friday is 23 rd out of 70 such eclipses in the Saros 141 Series. When this eclipse took place the Sun was covered by the moon leaving the outer ring of the Sun glowing in muted brightness. Almost half of the Globe came under darkness or partial darkness, especially at the height of eclipse at 7.47 GMT/UT when the shadow cast by the Moon was seen on the earth for an extent of 225 miles. Beginning from Chad in Africa the eclipse spread to the Sea of China in the East. There are few significant pointers in this Eclipse.
1. The Eclipse was at the Moon’s Ascending Node
2. The Moon was very farthest from the Earth called apogee at some 255,000 miles away
3. At the height of the Eclipse at 7.47 GMT/UT, the position of the Planets Sun and Moon are given below:
The Sun
Right Ascension (Celestial Longitude) 19 hour 47 minutes 58 seconds
Declination (Celestial Latitude) 21 degree 7 minutes 21 seconds
The Moon
Right Ascension (Celestial Longitude) 19 hour 47 minutes 48 seconds
Declination (Celestial Latitude) 21 degree 6 minutes 22 seconds
4. There are no significant stars in the area where the eclipse took place
5. To the south east of the location there are two celestial bodies; Venus at 19 hour and 52 minutes and far away M 75 Globular cluster at 20 hour and 6 minutes.
Cosmics
1. The Sun, the Moon, Venus and the M 75 Globular are in the Sagittarius constellation whose occult ownership is ascribed to Jupiter. Sagittarius constellation represents the Centaur (a figure of half –horse and half-man in Greek mythology). Ptolemy originally drew this figure and is followed ever since. This constellation is full of bright stars and a wealth of deep sky objects such as clusters and nebulae. Additionally, the constellation heralds boon for trade and economy
2. Venus personifies Wealth & prosperity, Knowledge & arts, Happiness & enjoyment, Luxury & comfort, Sensuality & civility, Beauty and brains etc
3. M75 Globular is a vast cluster of almost 130 light years in diameter, standing some 67,500 light years away from the earth with a visual magnitude of 8.5. This cluster is about 180,000 times brighter than the Sun. This is a massive cluster, very remote portraying military and political fame and action.
4. The Moon is located at Lunar Mansion 22 of Al-Sad Al- Dhabih (The fortune of the slayer). This Lunar Mansion leads to political manipulation or political capitulation in the external theatre. It is also bad for partnership in economy or of military nature between nations. But the Lunar Mansion is good for garnering internal political power.
Interpretation
1. Turkey Israel relationship dips from one of strategic partnership to that of managing tactical issues. Turkey goes on its declared policy of “zero problems with the neighbours” and would not require any partnership with Israel on strategic level. By the same token, Israel continues to rely on military as a sole buttress to keep the country safe from the wrath of Arab neighbours and would not countenance a critical ally in the form of peace loving and non-belligerent Turkey
2. Turkish economy expands with peace dividends and the need to rely on Israel as “partner in the same boat” vanishes into thin air. Israeli economy also expands in military related arms and technology but would not be sufficient to keep Turkey aligned to it. Earlier Israel was very dismissive of the political actors in Turkey often relying on the military actors in Turkey. Now this takes a 360 degree turn for which Israel is ill-prepared
3. Both countries would make grandiose statements in public regarding improving relationship and putting the past behind, but would continue to work in the opposite direction privately
4. Turkey becomes a key player in international and regional diplomacy whereas Israel languishes in isolation in the region and much of the globe
5. Turkey is wooed by countries ranging widely such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia who are competing for leadership of Arab league and Iran and Sudan who are struggling to stay put amidst the global outburst against them. Israel on the other hand struggles to make it relevant to any of these countries in peace and prosperity
6. Both countries would continue to bash each other via the electronic and print media as a state policy to satisfy their respective electorates
7. A lop-sided equation has come into force: Turkey needs Israel less and Israel needs Turkey more
8. Outside the equation, Israel is losing clout in the United States while Turkey is moving more towards Russia
9. The final nail on the coffin is struck when Israel invades either Gaza or Lebanon in the near future out of sheer frustration.
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Muthu Ashraff
Cosmic Adviser